China’s control over rare-earth minerals has emerged as one of the most important economic and strategic pressure points in the relationship between Beijing and Washington. As President Donald Trump meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington, rare earths are again at the centre of negotiations involving trade, technology and national security.
Why rare earths matter for weapons
Rare earths are a group of 17 elements that are difficult to mine and, more importantly, process at scale. They are used in high-performance permanent magnets, motors, sensors and electronic systems.
For the defence industry, these materials are incorporated into systems including fighter aircraft, submarines, precision-guided weapons, radar and unmanned systems. The Center for Strategic and International Studies has specifically identified rare-earth inputs in platforms such as the F-35, Virginia- and Columbia-class submarines, Tomahawk missiles and smart bombs.
That makes the issue particularly important while the United States and other countries are expanding weapons production amid conflicts and heightened military tensions around the world.
China controls the critical chokepoint
The biggest advantage for Beijing isn’t simply the amount of rare earths found inside China. It is the country’s dominance across the processing and magnet-manufacturing stages of the supply chain.
Reuters reported this week that China accounts for as much as 70% of global rare-earth mining, about 85% of refining capacity and roughly 90% of rare-earth metal alloy and magnet production.
This creates a significant vulnerability for countries that may have access to alternative mineral deposits but lack comparable processing and manufacturing capacity.
In other words, finding rare earths is not enough; turning them into usable industrial materials is the critical step.
Beijing has already demonstrated its leverage
China has increasingly used export controls as part of its broader economic and strategic relationship with Washington.
In 2025, Beijing introduced restrictions covering several rare-earth elements. Subsequent disputes over export licences created difficulties for American manufacturers and became a recurring issue in U.S.-China negotiations.
The pressure continued in 2026. In June, China imposed additional restrictions affecting several U.S. companies involved in efforts to develop alternative rare-earth supply chains. The measures included controls on dual-use rare-earth products that can have both civilian and military applications.
And in September, Reuters reported that some Chinese suppliers had stopped shipping certain rare-earth products to U.S. customers amid concerns about geopolitical repercussions.
Why this matters to Trump
Washington has been trying to reduce its dependence on China, but developing a completely independent supply chain takes years.
The United States has been investing in domestic mining, processing and magnet manufacturing. Companies such as MP Materials are part of this effort, while Washington has also sought supplies from partners outside China.
But there is a gap between announcing new capacity and having enough commercially viable production to replace China’s existing ecosystem.
That gives Beijing bargaining power.
Reuters reported ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting that experts viewed China’s rare-earth dominance as one reason the Trump administration has adopted a less confrontational approach toward Beijing in the run-up to the summit.
Rare earths and the global weapons race
The issue becomes even more significant as governments increase defence spending.
Modern weapons increasingly depend on sophisticated electronics, precision motors, sensors and guidance systems. Many of these components rely on high-performance magnets or other materials derived from rare earths.
Consequently, a disruption doesn’t necessarily mean that weapons production immediately stops. The bigger concern is production capacity, replenishment and the ability to rapidly scale manufacturing during a prolonged conflict.
This is particularly important for the United States because maintaining large inventories of advanced weapons requires a dependable industrial supply chain.
The Trump-Xi negotiations
Rare earths are therefore one of several major bargaining issues in the current U.S.-China relationship, alongside tariffs, artificial intelligence, semiconductor technology and Taiwan.
The issue is already on the agenda: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was expected to discuss rare earths with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng before the September 24 Trump-Xi summit.
The two countries have also extended their existing trade truce, giving both sides additional time to negotiate broader economic arrangements.
The bigger picture
The rare-earth dispute illustrates a fundamental feature of modern geopolitics: strategic power increasingly depends not only on weapons themselves, but on who controls the minerals, factories, processing technologies and supply chains needed to produce them.
For Washington, the challenge is to build alternative sources quickly enough to reduce exposure to Chinese export controls. For Beijing, rare earths provide an important source of economic leverage because China occupies such a large part of the global processing and magnet-production chain.
As long as that imbalance remains, rare earths are likely to remain an important element of U.S.-China negotiations—and a significant factor in the economics of modern defence production.
