New Delhi: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during July 2026, with precipitation expected to be around 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). July is one of the most crucial months for the southwest monsoon, and the forecast has raised concerns among farmers, policymakers, and agricultural experts across the country.
Rainfall Expected at 94% of Long Period Average
According to the IMD, the country is expected to receive rainfall amounting to 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) during July. As per IMD’s classification, rainfall between 90% and 96% of the LPA falls under the ‘below normal’ category.
Despite the subdued nationwide forecast, meteorologists noted that rainfall distribution is likely to vary significantly across different regions.
Regional Rainfall Outlook
The IMD has indicated that several parts of the country may still receive normal to above-normal rainfall, while others are likely to witness a rainfall deficit.
Regions likely to receive normal or above-normal rainfall:
- Central India
- Parts of eastern India
- Sections of the Himalayan foothills
- Some northeastern states
Regions expected to receive below-normal rainfall:
- Northwest India
- Several parts of the southern peninsula
- Isolated areas in western India
Weather experts have advised state governments to closely monitor local forecasts, as monsoon activity can fluctuate considerably throughout the month.
Impact on Agriculture
July is considered the backbone of India’s Kharif sowing season, during which farmers cultivate crops such as:
- Rice
- Soybean
- Cotton
- Maize
- Pulses
Below-normal rainfall could affect sowing operations, soil moisture levels, and irrigation requirements in rain-fed agricultural regions. However, agricultural experts note that rainfall distribution and its timing are often more important than the total monthly rainfall.
Reservoirs and Water Availability
Reduced rainfall during July may also influence water storage in reservoirs, particularly in regions already experiencing lower-than-normal monsoon activity. Reservoir levels play a vital role in irrigation, drinking water supply, and hydroelectric power generation.
Authorities are expected to monitor reservoir storage and rainfall trends closely over the coming weeks.
Monsoon Conditions Still Dynamic
The IMD emphasized that monsoon conditions remain dynamic and can change due to atmospheric and oceanic factors, including:
- Monsoon trough movement
- Low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal
- Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)
- Sea surface temperature variations
These weather systems may bring periods of heavy rainfall even during an overall below-normal month.
Advisory for Farmers
Agricultural departments have advised farmers to:
- Follow district-wise weather forecasts regularly.
- Use water-efficient irrigation methods wherever possible.
- Plan sowing activities based on local rainfall conditions.
- Stay updated on advisories issued by state agriculture and meteorological departments.
Conclusion
While the IMD’s forecast of 94% of the Long Period Average indicates that July 2026 is likely to witness below-normal rainfall at the national level, experts stress that regional variations and short-term weather systems could still bring significant rainfall to many areas. Farmers, water resource managers, and state authorities will be closely watching the progress of the southwest monsoon throughout the month.
